- Bitcoin’s 165 percent gain so far this quarter is the best second
quarter performance on record and the highest quarterly percentage gain
since the end of 2017. The stellar gains have bolstered the long-term
bullish technical setup. - While the relative strength index is reporting overbought
conditions, there are no signs of bullish exhaustion on the daily, 3-day
or weekly charts. As a result, the outlook remains bullish with
resistances lined up at $11,247 and $11,394, according to Bitstamp data. - A minor pullback to $10,000 could be seen if the price again fails
to hold onto gains above $11,000, validating a more bearish setup on the
4-hour chart. - The bullish outlook would be invalidated if the price finds acceptance below $9,097 (May 30 high).
Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be powering to the best second quarter price
gain on record and the best quarterly performance overall since late
2017.
At press time, the 165 percent gain on the April 1 opening price of
$4,092 is the biggest percentage rise observed in May to June to date,
going by Bitstamp data.
Further, bitcoin’s triple-digit gain so far for Q2 is the best
quarterly rise overall since the fourth quarter of 2017. Over that
period, the cryptocurrency rose 230 percent, propelling prices to a
lifetime high of $20,000 in December.
Monthly chart
- Bitcoin has rallied 165 percent so far this quarter, surpassing the
previous second quarter record gain of 130 percent seen in 2017. - Prices jumped a meager 10.9 percent in the first quarter this year.
- The 626 percent rise seen in the first three months of 2013 is bitcoin’s biggest quarterly gain to date.
With the 165 percent price rise, BTC seems to have left the bear
market far behind. In fact, the bearish-to-bullish trend change was confirmed on April 2, when prices rallied $1,000 to levels above $5,000.
The cryptocurrency then rose above
$8,000 in the run-up to New York Blockchain Week held from May 10 to
May 18 and remained bid after the event to hit highs near $9,100 on May
30.
The two-month double-digit winning streak has now extended into June, with prices briefly hitting 15-month highs above $11,000 over the weekend. The recent leg higher from $7,500 to $10,000 could be associated with Facebook’s foray into cryptocurrencies.
Observers
believe that Facebook’s Libra project will not only boost the adoption
of cryptocurrencies, but will also strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as an
anti-establishment asset.
Further, the leading cryptocurrency by market value is set to undergo
a mining reward halving in May next year. Therefore, the long-term
price prospects look bright.
In the short run, however, a repeated failure to hold onto gains
above $11,000 could yield a correction. As of writing, BTC is changing
hands at $10,880, representing 2.4 percent gains on the day.
Weekly, 3-day and daily charts
The RSIs on the weekly, 3-day and daily charts are reporting overbought conditions with above-70 readings.
So far, however, prices aren’t showing any signs of bullish
exhaustion. The bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs is
intact and the 5-and 10-candle moving averages (MA) on all three charts
continue to trend north.
The overbought readings on the RSIs would gain credence only if signs
of bull exhaustion emerge in the form of candlestick patterns such as
doji, bearish engulfing, hanging man, etc.
The bullish outlook would be invalidated only if and when prices drop
below $9,097 (May 30 high), invalidating the bullish higher lows and
higher highs pattern.
On the higher side, resistance is seen at $11,247 (Sunday’s high) and
$11,394 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the bear market drop).
4-hour chart
BTC has failed twice over the weekend to hold onto gains above $10,000 with the RSI charting lower highs (bearish divergence).
That RSI pattern would gain credence if the cryptocurrency again
fades a break above $10,000, leading to a drop toward $10,000 – the
support of the ascending trendline.
BTC was expected to put on a good show in the three months to June 30
this year, as a number of technical indicators had turned bullish in
February and March.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing
Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by TradingView
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies.
CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency
Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.
This article is intended as a news item to inform our
readers of various events and developments that affect, or that might in
the future affect, the value of the cryptocurrency described above. The
information contained herein is not intended to provide, and it does
not provide, sufficient information to form the basis for an investment
decision, and you should not rely on this information for that purpose.
The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it
was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment
professional. You should seek additional information regarding the
merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to
purchase or sell any such instruments.
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