A pump in daily volume creates an 8% swing on whether Trump will complete his first term.
Following reports
of United States President Donald Trump’s positive test result for
COVID-19, prediction markets have (perhaps predictably) seen a flurry of
activity.
One of the more macabre predictions gaining attention
is on the centralized PredictIt market run by the Victoria University of
Wellington in New Zealand.
Posing the question
“Will Donald Trump complete his first term?,” the prediction was
originally intended as a measure of the likelihood of the president
getting impeached and leaving office.
However, interest has grown
following news of the president’s close aide Hope Hicks testing positive
for the virus and the president subsequently being tested. Daily volume
jumped from a seven-day average of around $6,000, to over $37,000.
A good proportion of this must have been placed on “No” as the “Yes” price went down $0.04 to $0.82.
Following
this morning’s news that the president’s test result came back
positive, the “Yes” price has come down another $0.04 to $0.78. Less
than a week ago, the “Yes” price was at a lofty $0.90.
For
clarity, the specific rules of this prediction market state, “Temporary
incapacity resulting in the temporary transfer of authority to an acting
president shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.”
With
the threat of impeachment no longer hanging over him, this means that
predictors are essentially betting on the likelihood of Trump’s death.
As a technically obese
man in his seventies, Trump certainly falls into the higher risk
category. He and his wife Melania are currently quarantining at the
White House, putting election campaigning on hold for now.
source link : https://cointelegraph.com/news/prediction-market-doubts-trump-will-complete-first-term-after-covid-19-diagnosis
