Bitcoin and a few altcoins continue to push against resistance at higher levels, suggesting that the uptrend may resume soon.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the total amount of Bitcoin (BTC) held in exchange reserves dropped from 2.8 million BTC in October 2019 to 2.4 million.
Analysts believe that this steady decline in reserves means retail
traders and whales may be accumulating Bitcoin as they expect prices to
rise in the future.
Even though Bitcoin is still far below its lifetime highs, if it manages to close Q3 2020 above $10,590, that would be the second-best close in any quarter. Data from Skew shows this would only be behind the Q4 2017 closing price at $13,660.
All
of this suggests that the crypto markets are moving into the hands of
stronger investors who are not perturbed daily price fluctuations.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Institutional
investors are said to have deep pockets and favor holding long-term
positions. Data from Bybit shows that Grayscale Investments currently
holds 449,900 Bitcoin, which is over 2% of Bitcoin’s maximum possible supply.
If
institutional investors increase their allocations to cryptocurrencies,
demand could eventually exceed supply and that could boost Bitcoin’s
price.
Let’s study the charts to analyze the path of least resistance for the top-10 cryptocurrencies.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin
has been hovering around the 20-day exponential moving average
($10,732) for the past few days. Although the bulls had tried to break
away on Sep. 29, they could not sustain the higher levels.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The
bears have not been able to capitalize on the weakness and sink the
price below the $10,500 support. This shows indecision among the bulls
and the bears about the next directional move.
The flat
20-day EMA and the relative strength index near the midpoint suggests a
balance between supply and demand. It is difficult to predict the
direction of the next breakout from this range.
However,
sometimes, the movement of the RSI can provide some hints. If the RSI
rises above the symmetrical triangle and the 55 level, it increases the
possibility that the bulls may attempt a breakout of $11,178.
If
they succeed, the BTC/USD pair can rally to $12,000 and then to
$12,460. Conversely, if the bears sink the price below $10,500 and the
uptrend line, a drop to $9,835 is likely.
ETH/USD
The
bears are attempting to stall the relief rally at the 20-day EMA
($361). If the price turns down and breaks below $337, Ether (ETH) could drop to $308.392.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
When
the price fails to rise above the 20-day EMA in a down move, it
suggests that the sentiment is negative and the bears are selling on
rallies.
Both moving averages are sloping down
marginally and the failure of the RSI to rise above the 50 level
suggests that bears have the upper hand. A break below the critical
$308.392 support could result in a fall to $240.
This
negative view will be invalidated if the ETH/USD pair turns up and
breaks out of the 20-day EMA. Such a move could result in a rally to
$395.
XRP/USD
The pullback from the
Sep. 24 intraday low of $0.219712 has hit a wall at the 20-day EMA
($0.243). The failure of the bulls to push XRP above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bears may be shorting at this resistance.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Both
moving averages are sloping down marginally and the RSI is just below
the 50 level, which suggests that bears are at a slight advantage.
If
the bears can sink the XRP/USD pair below the $0.2295–$0.219712 support
zone, the downtrend may resume with the next stop at $0.19.
Contrary
to this assumption, if the pair turns up and breaks above the 20-day
EMA, it will be the first sign that the selling pressure is reducing. A
breakout of $0.26 will suggest a possible change in trend.
BCH/USD
The failure of the bulls to sustain Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the 20-day EMA ($227) for the past four days suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.
BCH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If
the bears sink the price below $223, a drop to $210 and then to $200
will be on the cards. A break below the critical support of $200 will be
a huge negative as it could signal the start of a possible downtrend.
This
negative view will be negated if the BCH/USD pair turns up and breaks
out of the downtrend line and the overhead resistance at $242. Above
this level, the up-move can reach $280.
BNB/USD
The pullback in Binance Coin (BNB)
reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $29.0886 on Sep. 29
where it is facing resistance. However, if the altcoin does not give up
much ground, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the price
above $29.0886.
BNB/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If
they succeed, the BCH/USD pair could move up to the 78.6% Fibonacci
retracement level of $30.9884 and above it to $33.4084. The rising
moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the bulls
have the upper hand.
The bears will try to pull down the
price but the bulls are likely to buy the next dip to the 20-day EMA
aggressively as the trend is up. The failure to sustain the price above
the 20-day EMA will be the first sign of weakness.
DOT/USD
The failure of the bulls to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($4.55) suggests weakness. Polkadot (DOT) has turned down and the bears will now try to sink the price below the $4–$3.5321 support zone.
DOT/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If
they succeed, the DOT/USD pair could give up ground and drop to $2.782
and below it to $2. The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the failure
of the RSI to sustain above 50 suggests that the bears have the upper
hand.
However, if the pair again rebounds off $4 or
turns up from the current levels, the bears will attempt to push the
price above the 20-day EMA. If they can accomplish that, the pair may
move up to $4.921 and then to $5.5899.
LINK/USD
The
failure of the bulls to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($10.60)
could have prompted profit booking from the short-term traders. The
bears will now try to capitalize on this weakness and sink Chainlink (LINK) below the immediate support at $9.3771.
LINK/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If
they succeed, the LINK/USD pair may drop to $6.90. The 20-day EMA has
started to turn down and the RSI has been sustaining below 50 for the
past few days, which suggests that the bears have the upper hand.
However,
if the pair rebounds off the $9.3771 support, a few days of range-bound
action is possible. A break above $11.1990 will be the first sign that
the selling pressure has reduced.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV)
turned down from the downtrend line on Sep. 28 but the bulls did not
allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($166). The buyers have
today pushed the price above the downtrend line and are attempting to
scale it above the 50-day SMA ($180).
BSV/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The
20-day EMA is turning up gradually and the RSI has risen into the
positive territory, which suggests that the bulls are at a slight
advantage. If they can propel the BSV/USD pair above the 50-day SMA, it
will increase the possibility of a rally to $208.
Conversely,
if the pair turns down from the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the
bears are aggressively defending this level. The sellers will then
attempt to sink the pair below the $146.20–$135.00 support zone.
CRO/USD
Crypto.com Coin (CRO)
has been trading below the moving averages for the past few days but
the bears have failed to sink the price below the immediate support at
$0.144743.
CRO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
However,
if the CRO/USD pair does not rise above the moving averages within the
next few days, it could result in another round of selling that could
challenge the $0.144743 support.
A break and close (UTC
time) below this level will complete the descending triangle pattern,
which has a target objective of $0.10607.
This bearish
setup will be invalidated if the bulls push the price above the
downtrend line of the triangle. Above this level, a move to $0.183416
and then to $0.191101 is possible.
ADA/USD
The strong relief rally in Cardano (ADA)
could not rise above the downtrend line on Sep. 28, but the positive
sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip below the
20-day EMA ($0.0955).
ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is sloping up and the RSI has been sustaining above 50, which suggests that the bulls have the upper hand.
If
the ADA/USD pair rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will once again
attempt to push the price above the downtrend line. If they succeed,
the pair could move up to $0.1280.
Contrary to this
assumption, if the bears sink the pair below the 20-day EMA, a drop to
$0.0855982 and then to $0.0755701 is possible.
source link : https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-9-30-btc-eth-xrp-bch-bnb-dot-link-bsv-cro-ada
