Bitcoin could consolidate for a few more days but select altcoins have
formed reversal patterns that may lead to a trending move.
Investors are concerned about the stability of the
cryptocurrency market after it was faced with a flurry of adverse news
in the past few days.
Fortunately, the markets have
matured to the extent that negative news no longer provokes wild price
swings like they once did in crypto’s early days.
The current stability shows that institutional investors do not consider the recent KuCoin hack, CFTC and DOJ charges against BitMEX, or even President Donald Trump being diagnosed with coronavirus as serious enough events to crash the crypto markets.
Therefore, there was no panic liquidation in Bitcoin (BTC) futures after the news broke and the open interest remained stable.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
In
a bullish trend, traders use price weakness caused by knee-jerk
reactions to add to their positions. If Bitcoin continues to sustain
above the psychologically critical level at $10,000, more investors may
consider adding to their portfolios.
Despite Bitcoin’s
sideways price action, a few altcoins have maintained their uptrend and
others are showing signs of a possible bullish trend reversal.
Let’s analyze the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies to see which critical levels may signal the start of a trending move.
BTC/USD
The
long-term trend in Bitcoin is bullish as the 200-day simple moving
average ($9,448) is sloping up. However, in the short-term, the flat
20-day exponential moving average ($10,682) and the relative strength
index close to the midpoint suggests a balance between supply and
demand.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The
BTC/USD pair is currently stuck between $9,835 and $11,178 for the past
few days. A break above or below this range could start a trending
move.
Between May and July, the pair had remained stuck
in a tight range for almost 80 days and the current consolidation has
completed about 30 days.
If history were to repeat
itself, then the price may remain range-bound for a few more days.
Hence, traders should be patient until the price breaks above or below
the range.
A breakout of $11,178 could start a rally
with the first target objective at $12,460, while a break below $9,835
and the 200-day SMA may intensify selling as traders rush to the exit to
dump their positions.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The
4-hour chart shows that the price is trading inside a large symmetrical
triangle. A breakout between half to three-fourths of the distance from
the base of the triangle to the apex is considered as reliable.
Therefore,
the bulls and the bears might attempt a breakout of the triangle within
the next few days. However, if that does not happen and the price
reaches the apex of the triangle, then the pattern will be invalidated.
ADA/USD
Cardano (ADA)
closed (UTC time) below the 200-day SMA ($0.0837) on Sep. 23 but the
bears could not sustain the lower levels, and the altcoin climbed back
above the long-term moving average on Sep. 24.
ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
This
suggests that the bulls are aggressively defending the 200-day SMA. The
price action of the past few days is showing a possible inverse head
and shoulders pattern formation that will complete on a breakout and
close (UTC time) above the neckline.
The pattern target
of this setup is $0.1331. This bullish view will come into play only
after the price breaks out of the neckline.
Contrary to
this assumption, if the ADA/USD pair turns down from the current level
or the neckline and drops below the 200-day SMA, it will invalidate the
pattern. This could attract aggressive selling with the next support at
$0.050.
ADA/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The
4-hour chart shows that the bulls are struggling to push the price
above the $0.1040440 overhead resistance. This shows that the bears are
selling on relief rallies to this resistance.
The
downsloping moving averages and the RSI in negative territory suggest
that bears have a slight advantage in the short-term. If the price dips
below $0.0898, the bears will try to sink the price to the critical
support at $0.074.
Conversely, if the bulls can push and
sustain the price above the moving averages, a move to $0.1040440 and
then to the neckline is possible.
XMR/USD
Monero (XMR)
broke above the $97.70 overhead resistance on Sep. 29 and the retest of
the breakout level was successful on Oct. 2. This shows that the level
that was previously acting as a stiff resistance is now acting as a
strong support.
XMR/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The
rising 20-day EMA ($97.15) and the RSI in the positive territory
suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The first
target is $113.211 and above it $121.427.
Momentum is likely to pick up if the bulls can push the price above this level and the next target is at $140.
This
positive view will be invalidated if the XMR/USD pair turns down from
the current levels and breaks below $93. Such a move could pull down the
price to the 200-day SMA at $71.79.
XMR/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The
4-hour chart shows that the pair has largely been trading inside a
channel for the past few days. Although the price broke above the
channel, the bulls could not sustain the higher levels and the pair
dropped to the support line of the channel.
However, the
rebound from the support line has been strong and the bulls are once
again trying to push the price above the channel. If they succeed, the
momentum could pick up.
Contrary to this assumption, if
the price fails to breakout of the channel, then a gradual up-move is
likely. The first sign of weakness will be a break below the channel.
ATOM/USD
Cosmos (ATOM)
is showing signs of a possible reversal as it has formed an inverse
head and shoulders pattern that will complete on a breakout and close
(UTC time) above the neckline.
ATOM/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
This setup has a target objective of $7.4 and if this level is crossed, the up-move can retest the highs at $8.877.
However,
the 20-day EMA ($5) is currently flat and the RSI is just above the
midpoint, which suggests a balance between supply and demand. Therefore,
traders may wait for the price to break above the neckline before
turning positive.
If the ATOM/USD pair turns down from the neckline, a drop to $4.50 and below it to the 200-day SMA ($3.675) is possible.
ATOM/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The
4-hour chart shows that the bulls purchased the dip to the 50%
Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from $3.78–$5.596. The buyers
will now try to push the price back above $5.596.
If they achieve the breakout and sustain it, the inverse head and shoulders pattern will complete.
This
bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from the
current levels or from the overhead resistance and drops below the 61.8%
retracement level of $4.474. Such a move could drag the price down to
$3.78.
VET/USD
The bulls have been
defending the $0.01094 support for the past few days but they have
failed to sustain the higher levels, which suggests that bears are
selling on rallies. Hence, VeChain (VET) has again dropped back to the $0.01094 support.
VET/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
If
the bears sink the VET/USD pair below $0.01094 support and the 200-day
SMA ($0.0104), the selling is likely to intensify and a drop to $0.008
and below it to $0.0066 is possible.
The 20-day EMA
($0.0128) is sloping down and the RSI has not been able to sustain above
50, which suggests that bears have the upper hand.
This
negative view will be invalidated if the pair again rebounds off the
support and rises above $0.0160. Such a move will suggest accumulation
by the bulls at lower levels.
VET/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The
4-hour chart shows the formation of a descending triangle, which will
complete on a breakdown and close (UTC time) below $0.010940. This setup
has a target objective of $0.00328.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears have the upper hand in the short-term.
source link : https://cointelegraph.com/news/top-5-cryptocurrencies-to-watch-this-week-btc-ada-xmr-atom-vet
